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Explore our latest reports and pieces
Tariff escalation between China and the United States will result in decoupling of goods trade. In turn this has raised fears that the $429bn of Chinese exports destined to the U.S. market in 2024 will be redirected or deflected to third markets. Fearful of intensified competition from Chinese products, some business associations and officials are calling for pre-emptive measures by importing governments. In this briefing I use the most disaggregated U.S. import data available to demonstrate that there are only 101 Chinese product categories where these were sufficient exports in 2024 to realistically raise export redirection risks. Moreover, I show that the majority of those Chinese products were losing ground in the U.S. market, calling into question whether, in fact, the exporters responsible will become fearsome competitors in world markets, as some assert.
This Chart Book illustrates trade deflection potential implied by President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order of 2 April 2025. We begin with the deflection of Chinese exports. Further charts on more jurisdictions, sector- and product-level implications will be added continuously. Last update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET (incl. "semiconductor clarification").
This short analysis breaks down the April 2, 2025 US Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order affecting $1.60 trillion in imports. We provide detailed coverage of the dual-action tariff structure (global 10% base plus country-specific additional duties), all exceptions, and precise trade volume implications across countries, sectors, and products. For trade professionals and policy analysts navigating these complex new measures, this explainer offers the factual foundation needed to assess potential impacts on supply chains, trade relationships, and market strategies without speculation or political framing. Latest Update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET.