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Redirecting Chinese Exports from the USA: Evidence on Trade Deflection from the First U.S.-China Trade War

ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #62

With the prospect of far-reaching decoupling of goods trade between China and the United States, fears of deflection of Chinese exports to third markets have returned. This briefing examines the factual record on the frequency of and foreign government response to Chinese trade deflection during the first U.S.-China Trade War before the COVID-19 pandemic scrambled global trade. Using product-level evidence on imports into G20 members (ex-USA) and Switzerland, we find that trade deflection occurred 42% of the time in big ticket export items. Where trade deflection happened, importing governments took defensive measures in only half of cases. There is huge variation across importing nations in the scale of Chinese trade deflection and in their appetite for absorbing extra imports without taking defensive action. We relate these findings to the current scale of Chinese exports to the USA and to the likely determinants of Chinese trade deflection to third markets going forward.

Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 14 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book: Deflection Edition

A visual guide to potential international trade implications beyond the U.S. in the aftermath of 2 April 2025.

This Chart Book illustrates trade deflection potential implied by President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order of 2 April 2025. We begin with the deflection of Chinese exports. Further charts on more jurisdictions, sector- and product-level implications will be added continuously. Last update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET (incl. "semiconductor clarification").

Johannes Fritz 09 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, explained

A high-level summary of the actions taken, exceptions made, and implicated trade volumes

This short analysis breaks down the April 2, 2025 US Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order affecting $1.60 trillion in imports. We provide detailed coverage of the dual-action tariff structure (global 10% base plus country-specific additional duties), all exceptions, and precise trade volume implications across countries, sectors, and products. For trade professionals and policy analysts navigating these complex new measures, this explainer offers the factual foundation needed to assess potential impacts on supply chains, trade relationships, and market strategies without speculation or political framing. Latest Update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET.

Johannes Fritz 07 Apr 2025

All Analyses

Redirecting Chinese Exports from the USA: Evidence on Trade Deflection from the First U.S.-China Trade War

ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #62
Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 14 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book: Deflection Edition

A visual guide to potential international trade implications beyond the U.S. in the aftermath of 2 April 2025.
Johannes Fritz 09 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs & Trading Partner Cost Competitiveness

ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #61
Simon Evenett 07 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, explained

A high-level summary of the actions taken, exceptions made, and implicated trade volumes
Johannes Fritz 07 Apr 2025

How are governments responding to the US Reciprocal Tariffs?

Latest Update: 17 April 2025, 08:30 am CET
Ana Elena Sancho, Fiama Angeles 07 Apr 2025

What if USTR’s Reciprocal Tariffs Formula were applied to U.S. services exports?

ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #60
Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 04 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs: Upending the Global Trade Policy Landscape

ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #59
Simon Evenett, Johannes Fritz 04 Apr 2025

Evidence from Tariff Laffer Curves

cBrief 6: Tariffs Cannot Fund the Government
Simon Evenett, Marc-Andreas Muendler 04 Apr 2025

U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book

A visual guide to the U.S. market access implications from the Executive Order of 2 April 2025.
Johannes Fritz 03 Apr 2025

Global Trade Alert in the News: On Trade Wars and Policy Risks

Recent mentions and citations of our evidence and insights.
Global Trade Alert 02 Apr 2025

GTA Monthly Roundup: March 2025

A summary of trade and industrial policy activity worldwide
Ana Elena Sancho 31 Mar 2025

Decoding the Dirty 15: What the 2020 NTE Report Reveals About the Coming Wave of U.S. Tariffs

ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #58
Fernando Martín Espejo 29 Mar 2025
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