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Is A Wave of Chinese Products Coming Your Way? Identifying Potential Chinese Export Redirection in 2024 U.S. Trade Data
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #63Tariff escalation between China and the United States will result in decoupling of goods trade. In turn this has raised fears that the $429bn of Chinese exports destined to the U.S. market in 2024 will be redirected or deflected to third markets. Fearful of intensified competition from Chinese products, some business associations and officials are calling for pre-emptive measures by importing governments. In this briefing I use the most disaggregated U.S. import data available to demonstrate that there are only 101 Chinese product categories where these were sufficient exports in 2024 to realistically raise export redirection risks. Moreover, I show that the majority of those Chinese products were losing ground in the U.S. market, calling into question whether, in fact, the exporters responsible will become fearsome competitors in world markets, as some assert.
Simon Evenett 22 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book: Deflection Edition
A visual guide to potential international trade implications beyond the U.S. in the aftermath of 2 April 2025.This Chart Book illustrates trade deflection potential implied by President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order of 2 April 2025. We begin with the deflection of Chinese exports. Further charts on more jurisdictions, sector- and product-level implications will be added continuously. Last update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET (incl. "semiconductor clarification").
Johannes Fritz 09 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, explained
A high-level summary of the actions taken, exceptions made, and implicated trade volumesThis short analysis breaks down the April 2, 2025 US Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order affecting $1.60 trillion in imports. We provide detailed coverage of the dual-action tariff structure (global 10% base plus country-specific additional duties), all exceptions, and precise trade volume implications across countries, sectors, and products. For trade professionals and policy analysts navigating these complex new measures, this explainer offers the factual foundation needed to assess potential impacts on supply chains, trade relationships, and market strategies without speculation or political framing. Latest Update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET.
Johannes Fritz 07 Apr 2025
All Analyses
Is A Wave of Chinese Products Coming Your Way? Identifying Potential Chinese Export Redirection in 2024 U.S. Trade Data
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #63Simon Evenett 22 Apr 2025
Redirecting Chinese Exports from the USA: Evidence on Trade Deflection from the First U.S.-China Trade War
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #62Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 14 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book: Deflection Edition
A visual guide to potential international trade implications beyond the U.S. in the aftermath of 2 April 2025.Johannes Fritz 09 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs & Trading Partner Cost Competitiveness
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #61Simon Evenett 07 Apr 2025
How are governments responding to the US Reciprocal Tariffs?
Latest Update: 23 April 2025, 5:00 pm CETAna Elena Sancho, Fiama Angeles 07 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, explained
A high-level summary of the actions taken, exceptions made, and implicated trade volumesJohannes Fritz 07 Apr 2025
What if USTR’s Reciprocal Tariffs Formula were applied to U.S. services exports?
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #60Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 04 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs: Upending the Global Trade Policy Landscape
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #59Simon Evenett, Johannes Fritz 04 Apr 2025
Evidence from Tariff Laffer Curves
cBrief 6: Tariffs Cannot Fund the GovernmentSimon Evenett, Marc-Andreas Muendler 04 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book
A visual guide to the U.S. market access implications from the Executive Order of 2 April 2025.Johannes Fritz 03 Apr 2025
Global Trade Alert in the News: On Trade Wars and Policy Risks
Recent mentions and citations of our evidence and insights.Global Trade Alert 02 Apr 2025
GTA Monthly Roundup: March 2025
A summary of trade and industrial policy activity worldwideAna Elena Sancho 31 Mar 2025
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