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Redirecting Chinese Exports from the USA: Evidence on Trade Deflection from the First U.S.-China Trade War
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #62With the prospect of far-reaching decoupling of goods trade between China and the United States, fears of deflection of Chinese exports to third markets have returned. This briefing examines the factual record on the frequency of and foreign government response to Chinese trade deflection during the first U.S.-China Trade War before the COVID-19 pandemic scrambled global trade. Using product-level evidence on imports into G20 members (ex-USA) and Switzerland, we find that trade deflection occurred 42% of the time in big ticket export items. Where trade deflection happened, importing governments took defensive measures in only half of cases. There is huge variation across importing nations in the scale of Chinese trade deflection and in their appetite for absorbing extra imports without taking defensive action. We relate these findings to the current scale of Chinese exports to the USA and to the likely determinants of Chinese trade deflection to third markets going forward.
Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 14 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book: Deflection Edition
A visual guide to potential international trade implications beyond the U.S. in the aftermath of 2 April 2025.This Chart Book illustrates trade deflection potential implied by President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order of 2 April 2025. We begin with the deflection of Chinese exports. Further charts on more jurisdictions, sector- and product-level implications will be added continuously. Last update: 14 April 2025, 9 am CET (incl. "semiconductor clarification").
Johannes Fritz 09 Apr 2025
How are governments responding to the US Reciprocal Tariffs?
Latest Update: 17 April 2025, 08:30 am CETThis post provides an updated summary of government responses to the reciprocal and other tariffs imposed by US Administration. It outlines developments since 1 April 2025 and highlights how various governments have chosen to respond.
Ana Elena Sancho, Fiama Angeles 07 Apr 2025
All Analyses
Redirecting Chinese Exports from the USA: Evidence on Trade Deflection from the First U.S.-China Trade War
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #62Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 14 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book: Deflection Edition
A visual guide to potential international trade implications beyond the U.S. in the aftermath of 2 April 2025.Johannes Fritz 09 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs & Trading Partner Cost Competitiveness
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #61Simon Evenett 07 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, explained
A high-level summary of the actions taken, exceptions made, and implicated trade volumesJohannes Fritz 07 Apr 2025
How are governments responding to the US Reciprocal Tariffs?
Latest Update: 17 April 2025, 08:30 am CETAna Elena Sancho, Fiama Angeles 07 Apr 2025
What if USTR’s Reciprocal Tariffs Formula were applied to U.S. services exports?
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #60Simon Evenett, Fernando Martín Espejo 04 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs: Upending the Global Trade Policy Landscape
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #59Simon Evenett, Johannes Fritz 04 Apr 2025
Evidence from Tariff Laffer Curves
cBrief 6: Tariffs Cannot Fund the GovernmentSimon Evenett, Marc-Andreas Muendler 04 Apr 2025
U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Chart Book
A visual guide to the U.S. market access implications from the Executive Order of 2 April 2025.Johannes Fritz 03 Apr 2025
Global Trade Alert in the News: On Trade Wars and Policy Risks
Recent mentions and citations of our evidence and insights.Global Trade Alert 02 Apr 2025
GTA Monthly Roundup: March 2025
A summary of trade and industrial policy activity worldwideAna Elena Sancho 31 Mar 2025
Decoding the Dirty 15: What the 2020 NTE Report Reveals About the Coming Wave of U.S. Tariffs
ZEITGEIST SERIES BRIEFING #58Fernando Martín Espejo 29 Mar 2025
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