Six potential outcomes of the North American Trade War through to the 2026 mid-term U.S. elections
This scenario-based analysis considers six possible outcomes of the North American Trade War, focusing on tariff adjustments, trade policies, and their implications for businesses across North America as the 2026 elections approach.
Simon J. Evenett, an international trade economist, is Professor of Geopolitics & Strategy at IMD Business School, Switzerland. He is also Founder of the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade, home of the independent monitoring initiatives Global Trade Alert, Digital Policy Alert and the New Industrial Policy Observatory and Co-Chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Futures Council on Trade & Investment.