GTA Monthly Roundup: January 2025

The Global Trade Alert team documented 415 new trade and industrial policy interventions announced in the last six weeks. Four trends emerge:

• The potential for new trade tensions emerged in late January 2024 when President Trump announced plans for tariffs linked to declared national emergencies on migration and the fentanyl crisis. While he signed an Executive Order on February 1st targeting Canadian imports, no tariffs have been formally implemented at the time of writing. Similarly, his stated intentions regarding Chinese and Mexican imports remain unformalised. To date, only Canada has taken concrete action, imposing retaliatory tariffs on US imports in anticipation of formal US action.
• Industrial policy is accelerating globally, with major economies announcing substantial support packages for semiconductors, clean energy, and critical minerals. The US alone authorised over USD 35 billion in new subsidies, while similar targeted support emerged from China, the EU, Japan, and others.
• Technology restrictions are becoming increasingly multilateral, extending beyond the US-China rivalry. Notable developments include the EU's new outbound investment screening recommendations and expanded Dutch semiconductor export controls.
• Energy transition policies are being increasingly leveraged for industrial policy goals, as evidenced by the US policy reversal on LNG exports and the EU's new "Competitiveness Compass". 

These developments suggest an intensifying fragmentation of the global trading system along both technological and environmental lines. The proliferation of restrictive entity lists, expanding export controls, and massive industrial subsidies pose significant challenges to maintaining an open, rules-based trading system.

The GTA Monthly Roundup provides a rapid overview of changes in import barriers, export curbs, subsidies, and related industrial policy measures. It is organised by geography beginning with the United States, China and the European Union. The final section briefly summarises developments in further regions covered by the GTA. Links to official sources are included in the references.

The US tightened export controls on critical technologies and reconsidered import tariff structures. The Biden Administration provided substantial funding for semiconductors, clean energy and electric vehicles (EV) before the Trump Administration reversed course. Overall, the GTA team documented 100 new US interventions announced in the last six weeks.

In a memorandum on an “America First Trade Policy”, President Trump directed cabinet officials to review and strengthen the export control system, focusing on risks from "strategic adversaries" and “geopolitical rivals”. The Department of Energy lifted its temporary pause on LNG export authorisations to non-FTA countries including China, India, and European Union members, a restriction in place since January 2024. 

Still under the Biden Administration, the Department of Commerce expanded export controls on advanced computing chips and AI model weights beyond China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to most countries. While 18 allied nations received exemptions, the restrictions now affect most of the world, including several EU members such as Poland.

Via an Executive Order, the Trump Administration announced its intention to impose additional import duties. The Order mandates a 25% additional tariff on Canadian imports while specifying that energy and energy resources would only be subject to a 10% additional tariff. It also announced its intention to impose a 5% additional tariff on Mexican imports and a 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports. At the time of writing, none of these tariffs have been formally implemented. 

The "America First Trade Policy" memorandum called for recommendations on global supplemental and China-specific tariffs, a review of trade imbalances, agreements (particularly the US-China Phase One trade deal), the USD 800 duty-free import exemption, and others. 

Before leaving office, the Biden Administration announced a series of major financial support measures targeting the semiconductor, clean energy and EV supply chains. The Department of Commerce allocated USD 1.1 billion to Natcast for a chips R&D facility under the CHIPS and Science Act and USD 320 million to Hemlock Semiconductor for polysilicon production. The Department of Energy authorised several loan guarantees: USD 6.6 billion to Rivian New Horizon for EV manufacturing, USD 7.5 billion to StarPlus Energy for battery plants, and USD 996 million to Ioneer Rhyolite Ridge for lithium carbonate development. Additionally, it granted  USD 15 billion to Pacific Gas & Electric Company for hydropower and storage, and USD 584.5 million to Convergent Energy and Power for solar and battery storage. And  USD 1.5 billion to Qcells for solar manufacturing. For alternative fuels, it granted USD 1.7 billion to Montana Renewables for biofuel production and USD 1.7 billion to Plug Power for hydrogen facilities. 

The Trump Administration reversed this trajectory with a new Executive Order shifting energy and environmental policy priorities. The order directed the restart of LNG export reviews, rolled back EV incentives and regulations, and introduced new policies to encourage energy exploration on federal lands.

Recent investment-related actions by both administrations underscore an increased focus on safeguarding “sensitive” industries and technology proliferation. 

The Trump Administration’s “America First Trade Policy” directed cabinet officials to assess whether current controls on US outbound investments adequately protect sensitive technologies from security risks, particularly in strategic sectors and certain countries of concern. Officials must evaluate existing measures and recommend updates to enhance security safeguards. 

The TikTok ban announced in April 2024 came into effect on 19 January 2025. The ban was short-lived as the new Trump administration delayed its implementation until 5 April 2025.

Previously, the Biden Administration prevented Japan's Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security concerns regarding the protection of critical infrastructure and preservation of domestic steel production capabilities.  Also under Biden, the US introduced new sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector. The sanctions package includes restrictions on technology transfers, financial transactions, and investment activities related to Russian energy projects. These measures also affect third-country entities engaging with targeted Russian energy companies and were coordinated with the United Kingdom. 

China implemented numerous trade policy changes including import-export controls, tariffs, and government procurement. The GTA team documented 40 new interventions announced over six weeks.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce strengthened export controls through multiple actions. The Ministry added four, seven and ten US defence companies to its Unreliable Entity List, barring them from China-related export activities. These restrictions target firms producing aircraft, unmanned systems, and defence-related technologies. Earlier, the ministry placed 28 US defence companies on its Dual-use Export Control List, implementing an immediate ban on exports of dual-use items to these entities. 

In early 2025, the government revised its annual export licensing regime. Whilst authorities expanded the list of goods requiring export licences to include certain petroleum products, chemicals, metals, and vehicles, they simultaneously removed licensing requirements for several products in chemicals, metals, and automotive categories.

The 2025 dual-use catalogue, released by the Ministry of Commerce in late December 2024, established export licences for 72 new tariff lines affecting chemical products, metals, and machinery equipment. Conversely, the government eliminated licensing requirements for 144 tariff lines across the chemical, textiles, electronics, and other sectors.

In the energy sector, China announced its first batch of 2025 export quotas for refined fuel products at 19 million tonnes. Similarly, the government set export quotas for low-sulphur marine fuel at 8 million tonnes.

China implemented import restrictions through its Unreliable Entity List. The mentioned inclusion of four, seven, and ten US defence companies throughout January also resulted in import bans. 

The annual "Tariff Adjustment Plan" raised import tariffs on 100 products whilst reducing tariffs on 19 others. The 2025 import licensing catalogue introduced requirements for 12 new tariff lines in chemicals and machinery, whilst removing requirements for 42 tariff lines.

The 2025 dual-use catalogue amendments extended import licensing to 18 new tariff lines and discontinued requirements for 36 items, primarily affecting chemical products.

China extended its interest payment subsidy scheme for equipment renewal and technical transformation. Eligible loans are those granted under the People's Bank of China's CNY 500 billion lending facility announced in April 2024.

The ten, seven, and four US defence companies added to China’s Unreliable Entity List throughout January faced tightened restrictions on foreign investment and business operations. Beyond import and export restrictions, these entities were subject to revoked work permits and residence qualifications for senior management, alongside a ban on new investments in China.

The government also published "countermeasures" against other five US defence companies Raytheon Canada, and Raytheon Australia, freezing their assets and prohibiting transactions with Chinese organisations.

Conversely, the Chinese State Council removed several foreign ownership and investment restrictions in Beijing’s "Comprehensive Pilot Demonstration Zone for Expanding Opening-Up in the Services Sector". 

In healthcare, China launched its fifth batch of centralised procurement for medical consumables, selecting 23 suppliers for cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents. The program aims to reduce costs through bulk purchasing whilst implementing localisation requirements.

The GTA team recorded 45 new interventions for the European Union and its member states during the last six weeks. These encompass import measures, investment controls and financial support mechanisms.

The Netherlands expanded its export restrictions on advanced semiconductor production equipment. This regulation enhances previous restrictions from 2024 and introduces additional oversight on specific measuring and inspection equipment.

In late December 2024, the EU undertook its regular import regime adjustments. The EU raised import duties on 114 agricultural and industrial products, affecting food products, chemicals, plastics, electronics, and others. In the same regulation, it reduced or eliminated import duties on 15 industrial products, primarily in the chemicals, plastics, and electronic sectors.

Moreover, the EU adjusted its autonomous import tariff-rate quota system. It increased in-volume quotas for several products, opened new ones for chemicals, metals, and other industrial products, and reduced the in-volume quota for vinyl acetate.

The Commission unveiled its new "Competitiveness Compass", a strategic document outlining multiple initiatives to enhance European industrial leadership. The document announced several regulation proposals including a Clean Industrial Deal, an Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act, and a Competitiveness Fund. Additionally, the document anticipates a "European preference in public procurement" instrument targeting “strategic sectors and technologies”. 

Regarding financial support, Italy announced multi-billion support to promote exports to Saudi Arabia. Germany approved a EUR 4.1 billion financial grant to Deutsche Energy Terminal for operating four storage and regasification units for LNG imports. In Spain, the European Investment Fund signed a EUR 450 million guarantee with MicroBank to support SMEs and social entrepreneurs.

The EU advanced its economic security agenda with a new development in outbound investment screening. On 15 January 2025, the Commission published recommendations for member states to review outbound investments to non-EU countries, focusing on three strategic technology areas: semiconductors, AI, and quantum technologies. 

The GTA team documented 230 new interventions announced by other jurisdictions in the last six weeks. Notable developments include:

Argentina liberalised trade by eliminating or reducing export taxes for hundreds of products, including temporary reductions for 84 agricultural and food items. The country also approved Luz de Campo SA's "Parque Solar El Quemado y Anexos" solar project as the first beneficiary of the Incentive Regime for Large Investments. The scheme allows duty-free imports of capital goods and equipment along with additional fiscal incentives for qualifying large investments.

Australia announced an AUD 200 million equity investment into Arafura Rare Earths Limited to support rare earth processing. Earlier, the government increased its FDI review thresholds for various categories of foreign investments from different jurisdictions.

Brazil established temporary tariff-rate quotas for twelve products and infant food preparations and contact lenses to address supply shortages. In terms of subsidies, the country launched a BRL 5 billion financing programme to support strategic mineral projects. Under the programme, national financing institutions will provide loans, grants and equity to strengthen Brazil's position in critical mineral supply chains. 

Canada announced a 25% additional tariff on imports from the US in anticipation of "the unjustified U.S. tariffs". The duties target 800 eight-digit tariff subheadings worth CAD 30 billion in bilateral trade. 

India approved an INR 16’300 crore “National Critical Mineral Mission” for the critical mineral value chain, given their importance to high-tech, clean energy, and defence industries. Previously, the government introduced the "Diamond Impres Authorisation" scheme enabling duty-free import of diamonds weighing 1/4 carat or less for value addition and re-export. This scheme includes both tax-based export incentives and local value-added requirements. Moreover, the country approved an INR 11’440 crore revival plan for the state-owned steel manufacturer Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd. It also set a one million MT sugar export quota for the 2024–2025 season.

Indonesia adjusted its agricultural support by reducing annual fertiliser subsidies from IDR 54 trillion to IDR 46.8 trillion.

Japan strengthened its sanctions against Russia and its allies. The government prohibited exports of industrial capacity-enhancing items to Russia, banned exports to 53 entities from Russia, China, Hong Kong, and other countries, and imposed financial sanctions on 32 Russian entities and one Georgian bank. The country also announced loan insurance support worth USD 139 million for the Muara Laboh Geothermal Power Expansion Project in Indonesia. In late December, Japan announced a JPY 23.9 billion support package for storage battery development, including support for Mitsui Mining & Smelting for sulfide-based solid electrolytes, to Idemitsu Kosan for lithium sulfide production, and to Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation for graphite-based anode materials. 

Mexico unveiled its “Plan México” development strategy which included industrial support initiatives and localisation goals. The initiative was followed by a “Nearshoring Decree” introducing tax incentives for dual training and innovation investments. Additionally, the government increased the annual budget of the National Fertilisers Programme. In trade policy, Mexico increased import tariffs on 24 products by removing them from the "basic basket" products list and eliminated import tariffs on 10 others by adding them to the list. The government also temporarily increased import tariffs on 155 textile and apparel products.

Russia allocated RUB 42.1 billion to support preferential lending to agricultural producers and processors in 2025. In late December, the country decreased the in-quota volume temporary quotas on imports of certain seeds from "unfriendly" countries. Conversely, it increased the 2025 in-quota volume of scrap and ferrous metal under the export tariff-rate quota system.

Saudi Arabia launched the SAR 10 billion "Standard Incentives Program for the Industrial Sector". The program targets sectors such as building materials, automotive, chemicals, machinery and equipment, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, metals, medical devices, maritime, and food processing. 

South Korea implemented multiple financial support measures and trade policy adjustments. The country launched a “Supply Chain Preferential Guarantee Program” providing KRW 150 billion in loan guarantees to support domestic SMEs and their overseas operations. Additionally, the government announced substantial financial support during the Lunar New Year holidays, including KRW 3.5 trillion from the Industrial Bank of Korea, KRW 800 billion from the Korea Development Bank and KRW 800 billion from the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund. Trade-policy-wise, the country reduced import tariffs on several products, reduced in-quota volumes for imports of multiple agricultural products and opened new import tariff-rate quotas. 

The United Kingdom announced new financial sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector. The measures, coordinated with the US, target two Russian oil companies.

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