Executive Summary
The Global Trade Alert team documented 529 new trade and industrial policy interventions during October 2025. Six trends emerge:
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China–US rivalry defined the month. Washington widened export-control reach under the “Affiliates Rule,” while Beijing imposed sweeping new export controls on strategic materials and technologies. Firms such as Nexperia and TechInsights found themselves trapped between the overlapping regimes. Following a meeting in South Korea, both governments floated a one-year suspension of certain measures as part of a tentative truce.
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New US tariff-related trade deals were published. Finalised agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia were released in full, including annexes and legally binding provisions. Progress reports were issued for Thailand and Vietnam. Attention will now turn to the implementation of the new obligations.
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Sanctions deepened and spread across jurisdictions. October marked the first direct US sanctions on Russia under the Trump Administration, hitting Rosneft and Lukoil. The EU’s 19th package and aligned UK, Swiss, and New Zealand measures broadened bans on vessels, financial transactions, and tech exports. As enforcement has shifted to maritime and logistics networks, more companies in third countries are being caught in the sanctions net.
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Governments reinforced their drive for technological sovereignty. The EU advanced major initiatives on AI and semiconductor scale-up to strengthen technological sovereignty. China’s recommendations on its forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan place emphasis on self-reliance in strategic industries. Other governments are increasingly adopting similar policies, with Türkiye’s support for data centres, cloud infrastructure, AI, and quantum computing service the most recent case in point.
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Several jurisdictions stepped up action on energy security and energy transition. Russia and the EAEU adopted export and duty measures to secure energy supply; China amended its VAT refund policies for electricity from offshore wind and nuclear projects, and the US, EU, Japan, and Canada expanded large-scale public financing for electricity infrastructure and clean-energy generation.
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Renewed policy activity in the steel sector. The EU proposed replacing its expiring safeguard with a stricter tariff-rate-quota regime, while Argentina eliminated export duties on steel and aluminium. Australia, Mexico, and South Africa launched new antidumping investigations, and the UAE extended higher import duties on reinforcing steel.
The GTA Monthly Roundup provides a rapid overview of changes in import barriers, export curbs, subsidies, and related industrial policy measures. It is organised by geography, beginning with the United States, China and the European Union. The final section briefly summarises developments in further regions covered by the GTA. Links to official sources are included in the references.
United States
The United States announced four new bilateral trade deals with ASEAN nations and announced a deal on a comprehensive truce with China. Washington adopted new sanctions and promised several firm-specific import tariff exemptions. The GTA team documented 60 new interventions during the last four weeks.
Export Restrictions
Import Restrictions
The four reciprocal trade agreements signed with ASEAN countries include US commitments to maintaining the 19% additional duty rate on certain goods from Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand, as well as the 20% additional duty rate on goods from Vietnam. In addition, for Cambodia, the US identified 1'875 eight-digit tariff codes that will receive duty-free treatment. The lists of products that will receive a duty-free reciprocal tariff rate for Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are still being finalised.
The US announced its plan to lower tariffs on certain Chinese imports by 10% and to extend the expiration of certain Section 301 tariff exclusions under the trade and economic agreement with China. Additional regulatory approval is required before these announcements are implemented.
On 24 October, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched an investigation under Section 301 concerning China's implementation of the Phase One Agreement signed in January 2020. The investigation focuses on China's compliance with commitments on intellectual property protection, forced technology transfer, agricultural trade, and financial services, as well as purchase commitments for US goods and services that reportedly fell short by over USD 217 billion.
A day earlier, the USTR determined that Nicaragua's labour rights, human rights, and rule of law practices burden US commerce. The USTR proposed suspending CAFTA-DR trade benefits and imposing tariffs of up to 100% on Nicaraguan products.
Subsidies
The Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office approved a USD 1.6 billion loan guarantee to a subsidiary of American Electric Power for reconductoring and rebuilding transmission lines across five states. The Department also approved a USD 1.5 billion loan to Wabash Valley Resources to finance a coal- and ammonia-based fertiliser facility in Indiana to reduce reliance on foreign fertiliser imports. The measures were granted under the Energy Dominance Financing Program.
At the state level, Texas awarded USD 1.1 billion and USD 278.3 million in low-interest loans through the Texas Energy Fund to support natural gas power plants. These facilities are expected to add over 1’800 MW of generation capacity to the state grid.
The government’s reciprocal trade agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia also include US commitments to “consider supporting investment financing in critical sectors”. The support will be channelled through institutions such as the Export-Import Bank or the US International Development Finance Corporation.
Other Measures: Reshoring incentives, sanctions and maritime fees
The US reached agreements with European pharmaceutical companies, offering future Section 232 tariff exemptions in exchange for reshoring production and implementing pricing reforms. The US granted a three-year tariff exemption to AstraZeneca, which committed to fully reshoring its medicines manufacturing, investing USD 50 billion in US manufacturing and research, and implementing most-favoured-nation drug pricing for American patients. EMD Serono received a similar exemption, committing to MFN pricing and manufacturing IVF drugs domestically for the first time. These agreements follow the President's September announcement of plans to impose 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceutical products.
Throughout October, the US Treasury Department intensified sanctions targeting entities allegedly supporting illicit activities. On 22 October, the Treasury imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as 34 subsidiaries. The companies allegedly fund "the Kremlin's war machine." The sanctions block the companies' properties and prohibit US persons from transacting with them.
Beyond Russia, the Treasury also imposed sanctions on entities across Mexico, India, and the United Arab Emirates for their alleged involvement in supporting a transnational human smuggling organisation. Earlier in the month, the Treasury sanctioned 12 Mexico-based companies allegedly associated with the Sinaloa Cartel's Los Chapitos faction. These entities reportedly supplied precursor chemicals and laboratory equipment used in illicit fentanyl production. Additionally, the US imposed sanctions on entities from Germany, Uruguay, Türkiye, Portugal, and Hong Kong for alleged roles in Iran-related military procurement, as well as several Iran-based entities and China-based companies tied to procurement for Iranian ballistic missile and military aircraft programs.
On 3 October, US authorities announced new fees applicable to vessels owned, operated, or built in China, as well as to all foreign-built vehicle carrier vessels, which entered into force on 14 October. As part of the trade and economic agreement reportedly reached with China, the US government announced it would suspend for one year the implementation of actions stemming from its Section 301 investigation into China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. This announcement requires additional regulatory procedures to enter into force.
China
In October, China expanded export controls, adopted new subsidies to support strategic industries, and outlined its 15th Five-Year Plan priorities. It also announced a deal on a comprehensive truce with the US, but had not released a joint statement or implementing documents at the time of writing. The GTA team documented 51 new interventions.
Export Restrictions
China released its 2026 export quota list, adjusting quotas for various goods, including reducing annual quotas for ephedra, juncus, and livestock exports to Hong Kong and Macao, while increasing the quota for sawn timber.
On 9 October, the Ministry of Commerce announced new licensing requirements for the transfer of rare-earth-related technologies, know-how, and services to foreign entities. In addition, the Ministry introduced licensing requirements for foreign entities exporting Chinese-origin rare earth materials (effective immediately) and certain items made with Chinese-origin rare earth materials (effective 1 December).
On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce expanded the scope of licensing requirements for medium and heavy rare earth elements, rare earth production equipment and related items, certain superhard materials, as well as lithium-battery and artificial graphite negative-electrode materials. The new requirements were announced to enter into force on 8 November. According to the US government, China committed to suspending the new export controls as part of a bilateral deal. The Chinese government had not confirmed this at the time of writing.
Also on 9 October, the Ministry of Commerce added 12 US-based defence-related companies as well as Canadian TechInsights Inc and its nine global subsidiaries to the country’s Unreliable Entity List, banning the entities from engaging in China-related export activities.
The Ministry also issued an export control notice prohibiting Nexperia China from exporting finished components manufactured in China. This action followed the Dutch government's decision to place Nexperia under ministerial oversight. A spokesperson later announced that China would “grant exemptions for exports that meet the relevant criteria".
Import Restriction
Subsidies
The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted Recommendations for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan. The document provides guidance on the priorities for the period 2026-2030. Among other measures, the document outlines plans for achieving self-reliance in science and technology through "unconventional measures" supporting core technologies. It also calls for expanding market access and shortening the negative list for foreign investment and promoting Chinese exports, including through Belt and Road initiatives. The final 15the Five-Year Plan is expected to be adopted and released in March 2026.
The central government introduced revised Value-Added Tax refund policies for electricity generated from offshore wind and nuclear power projects. This measure aims to support China's transition to cleaner energy sources and enhance domestic energy security.
During October, the three Chinese national-level policy banks - Agricultural Development Bank of China, China Development Bank, and Export–Import Bank of China - announced the disbursement of CNY 450 billion in state aid under a "new policy-based financial instrument". The new instrument had been announced during a press conference on 29 September in order to boost effective investment.
At the provincial level, Shandong Province adopted comprehensive support measures for the commercial aerospace industry, including support for AI-enabled satellite projects and innovation platforms. The Beijing Municipality issued several state aid measures to support the establishment of the Beijing Future Digital Space Innovation Pilot Zone, including state aid to support frontier technology development in areas such as AI or virtual reality. Guangzhou's Huadu District announced multiple state aid measures to promote aviation industry development. Similarly, Guangzhou's Tianhe District introduced state aid measures for the low-altitude economy and aerospace development, including financial support for drone technology companies.
Other Measures: Special port fees and countermeasures
European Union
The EU adopted new sanctions on Russia, proposed a revised import quota system for steel, and launched major funding programs for AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy. The Netherlands placed semiconductor firm Nexperia under ministerial oversight. The GTA team documented 75 new interventions adopted by the EU and its member states.
Export Restrictions
As part of its 19th sanctions package following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU expanded export bans to include metals, chemicals and other products destined to Russia. The measures also prohibit European businesses from providing tourism-related services and AI services to Russia. Additionally, Brussels added 45 entities from Russia, China, Hong Kong, India, and Thailand to its firm-specific dual-use goods export ban list.
Import Restrictions
Subsidies
Other Measures: Government Control, Sanctions and Trade Defence
The Netherlands disclosed that it had placed semiconductor producer Nexperia under ministerial oversight. The measure was enacted using the “Goods Availability Act”, which allows the Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs to block company decisions potentially harmful to Dutch and European interests. The Amsterdam Court of Appeal later upheld ministerial oversight of Nexperia. It cited concerns about the company's ownership by a Chinese shareholder connected to Wingtech, which is on the US "Entity List". It also noted that the ruling aims to protect the company's operational capabilities and prevent potential complications arising from the US "50% rule" regarding foreign ownership.
The 19th sanctions package included financial sanctions against entities supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brussels added three Belarusian companies and several companies headquartered in Russia, Kyrgyzstan, China, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Netherlands Antilles to its frozen funds list. The European Union also banned transactions with A7A5 and Payeer, a stablecoin and payment platform allegedly used to circumvent sanctions. The EU also forbade port access and services to 117 vessels contributing to Russia's war effort, while re-allowing access for three previously sanctioned vessels.
Regarding trade defence, the Commission set a definitive antidumping duty on imports of certain steel track shoes (62.5%) and screws without heads (from 54.7% to 72.3%) from China. It also extended the antidumping duty on Chinese ceramic tableware and kitchenware imports.
Other Regions
The GTA documented 343 new interventions announced by jurisdictions outside the US, China, and the European Union in the last four weeks. Significant developments include:
Argentina temporarily eliminated export duties on steel and aluminium products destined for countries with 45% or higher import tariffs, a measure effectively targeting the United States. The policy applies to various steel and aluminium products under numerous tariff positions and will be in force from 9 October to 31 December 2025. Additionally, Argentina's Investment and Foreign Trade Bank (BICE) announced a credit line for exporting companies, offering loans up to ARS 3.5 billion for warehouse expansions and improvements. Buenos Aires terminated the antidumping duty imposed on imports of plastic self-adhesive products from Chile following the conclusion of a sunset review. The duty had been in place since 2013.
Australia initiated a countervailing duty investigation on imports of certain flat rolled steel products from China, following an application by BlueScope Steel Limited. The products affected are classified under HS subheadings 7208.40.00, 7208.51.00, 7208.52.00, 7208.90.00, and 7225.40.00. The government also launched a parallel antidumping investigation on the same products from China and the Republic of Korea. Additionally, Australia opened countervailing duty and antidumping investigations on imports of freight railway wheels from China. The Queensland government further announced co-financing of up to AUD 600 million to support Glencore's Mount Isa Copper Smelter and Townsville Refinery.
Brazil provided a BRL 1.7 billion loan to finance the export of 13 Embraer E-175 aircraft to SkyWest Airlines in the US. The financial resources come from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development's (BNDES) Exim Post-Shipment credit line, with deliveries scheduled between late 2025 and the end of 2026. BNDES also announced up to BRL 1 billion in state aid to invest in five index funds to support the strengthening and democratisation of the capital market. The government initiated an antidumping investigation on imports of non-woven fabrics from China, Egypt, and Israel and set the definitive antidumping duty on imports of certain titanium dioxide pigments from China.
Cambodia signed an "Agreement on Reciprocal Trade" with the US, committing to facilitate US investment in critical minerals, energy resources, and infrastructure. The agreement also confirmed that Air Cambodia would finalise the purchase of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, with an initial ten planes and purchase rights for an additional ten.
Canada announced a CAD 2 billion equity injection to support Ontario Power Generation's Darlington New Nuclear Project, alongside a CAD 1 billion contribution from the Ontario government. In response to production reductions, Canada reduced General Motors' General Motors and Stellantis’ annual counter-tariff remission quota by 24.2% and 50%, respectively. The government of Quebec created the CAD 200 million Impulsion Fund to provide equity support to local technology companies. Other measures included initiating anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on thermoformed moulded fibre tableware from China, and providing CAD 700 million in guarantees for softwood lumber businesses. In terms of trade defence, Ottawa initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on imports of truck bodies from China. It also imposed parallel provisional antidumping and countervailing duties on Chinese imports of cast iron soil pipe. The duties ranged from 213.4% to 329.2% depending on the company.
The Eurasian Economic Union temporarily reduced import duties on motor petrol, jet fuel, diesel fuel, marine fuel and other gas oils from 5% to zero. The measure applies from 10 October 2025 to 30 June 2026 and affects 16 tariff codes, aiming to maintain balance in the domestic fuel market amid declining production and seasonal demand increases.
India approved several projects under the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme, providing grants of up to 25% of the projects’ capital expenditure. The Indian authorities also initiated an antidumping investigation on imports of melamine from China. The products under investigation are classified under HS code subheading 2933.61.00. At the subnational level, the state of Andhra Pradesh approved an incentive package for a Google-affiliated company to set up AI-powered data centres.
Iraq approved an additional customs duty of 50% on imported intravenous sodium chloride solutions for a period of four years as part of the "support local product" initiative. The government also opened imports for tomatoes and onions from 15 October 2025, lifting previous restrictions to maintain stable prices in the face of low domestic production.
Japan provided financial support for renewable energy development, with the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) concluding a USD 382 million loan agreement with ACWA Power Sazagan Solar2 FE LLC and a USD 253 million loan with ACWA Power Sazagan Solar1 FE LLC for solar power projects in Uzbekistan. Additionally, JBIC provided JPY 37.4 billion (USD 248 million) in loan guarantees to ANA Holdings Inc. for importing two Boeing aircraft from the United States.
The Southern African Customs Union initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imports of tubes and pipes having circular cross-sections from Mozambique. The products subject to investigation are classified under HS code subheading 7305.19, with the investigation launched following an application by Hall Longmore (Proprietary) Limited.
Malaysia signed an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with the US, committing, among others, to facilitate US investment in critical minerals, energy resources, telecommunications and infrastructure. The agreement also includes commitments to facilitating investment of approximately USD 70 billion in the US over the next 10 years and confirms previously made commitments.
Mexico initiated several antidumping investigations on imports from China, including screws and threaded bolts of steel, polyvinyl chloride canvas with textile reinforcement, and self-adhesive paper tapes. These investigations follow applications lodged by domestic manufacturers seeking protection against what they allege to be unfairly priced imports affecting their industries. The government also set a provisional anti-dumping duty on imports of polycarbonate sheets from China.
Morocco allocated MAD 12.8 billion in financial support to livestock breeders under the National Herd Reconstitution Program following recent droughts and feed shortages. The program provides a production subsidy for animal feed purchases beginning in November 2025 and support for female breeding animals beginning in April 2026.
New Zealand imposed sanctions against entities and vessels involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. The government prohibited providing financial services to Belarus-based entities, including Naftan Oil Refinery and Belneftekhim, and sanctioned three Russian entities operating sea ports and maritime services. Additional measures included sanctions against two North Korean banks and port access restrictions for 65 vessels allegedly involved in shipping Russian oil.
Pakistan permitted the commercial import of used vehicles under HS codes 8702, 8703, 8704, and 8711, but simultaneously imposed a 40% regulatory duty on these imports. Initially, only vehicles less than five years old will be allowed until June 2026, with all imports required to meet specific environmental, safety, and quality standards.
The Philippines established a framework for setting mandatory regional floor prices for unhusked rice (palay) purchases by the government. Floor prices will be reviewed and adjusted before the onset of the cropping season or whenever necessary.
Russia reinstated its temporary ban on petrol exports for all exporters from October 1 to December 31, 2025. The government also introduced a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel, marine fuel, and other gas oils for the same period, with an exemption for producers of these products. Both measures aim to "maintain a stable situation in the domestic fuel market." The government also announced changes in temporary export quotas on certain mineral fertilisers for the period December 2025 to May 2026. The national development finance institution VEB.RF disclosed a RUB 29.3 billion loan to Vasta Group, a Russian group of hotel management companies.
Saudi Arabia initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imports of easy-open aluminium can lids from China. The products subject to investigation are classified under HS code subheading 8309.90.70, following an application lodged by the National Factory for Can Ends Ltd on 28 August 2025.
South Korea expanded its export financing activities, with the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-SURE) providing USD 600 million in financing for the construction of an underwater tunnel in Panama involving South Korean construction companies. K-SURE also provided USD 300 million in short-term export insurance to biopharmaceutical company Celltrion to secure early payment of export receivables generated from transactions with overseas subsidiaries. The Industrial Bank of Korea announced providing KRW 1 trillion in loans to promote workplace safety investments among SMEs.
Switzerland adopted additional sanctions against Russia, implementing further parts of the EU’s 18th package of sanctions. The new measures include expanded import and export bans, prohibitions of transactions related to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 projects, as well as restrictions on the exchange of financial data with 22 new Russian banks.
Thailand agreed on a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with the US, committing to commercial deals in the agriculture, energy, and aviation sectors. Specific commitments include annual purchases of USD 2.6 billion in agricultural products, USD 5.4 billion in energy products, and procurement of 80 US aircraft worth USD 18.8 billion. Thailand also committed to issuing import permits for US ethanol for fuel, improving market access for US biofuels.
Türkiye announced multiple funding initiatives under its HIT-30 High Technology Investment Program, including USD 1.5 billion for data centres with energy support covering 10% of investment amounts, and USD 300 million for quantum computing services with grants up to 40% of investment costs. The government also allocated USD 1.6 billion for cloud infrastructures and artificial intelligence, with corporate tax support up to 60%, and USD 1 billion for industrial robot manufacturing, with production subsidies up to USD 5’000 per robot. Additionally, Türkiye initiated anti-dumping investigations on dental milling/carving machines from China and various types of tyres from Czechia and India, the Republic of Korea and Serbia, and multiple further European countries.
The United Arab Emirates announced AED 500 million (USD 136.15 million) in financing solutions for Emirati startups and MSMEs through the Emirates Development Bank. The support includes loan guarantees, co-lending programmes, and receivables-based support, along with non-financial enablement programmes for 500 entrepreneurs. The government of Dubai extended import duty increases on reinforcing steel and steel until 12 October 2026, implementing the nationwide extension decision adopted by the United Arab Emirates.
The United Kingdom imposed sanctions on entities allegedly supporting Russia's oil, defence, and financial sectors. These include restrictions on companies from China, India, Thailand, Singapore, Russia, United Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong, as well as port access prohibitions for 51 vessels. The UK also launched the Local Innovation Partnerships Fund with a GBP 500 million budget, allocating at least GBP 30 million to partnerships in ten pre-selected regions and establishing a competitive strand for partnerships in other locations. The government further launched the Life Sciences Large Investment Portfolio scheme with a budget of GBP 570 million to businesses operating in the medicines, MedTech, or diagnostics sector.
Vietnam agreed on a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade with the US, committing to provide preferential market access for substantially all US industrial and agricultural exports to Vietnam. The government also vowed to address import licenses for US medical devices. Beyond the deal, Vietnam also committed to providing up to VND 100 trillion (USD 3.8 billion) in credit financing through the Vietnam Development Bank to Son Hai Group and Truong Hai Group. This funding will support transport infrastructure projects nationwide during the 2025-2030 period, including roads, bridges, and public works.
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