GTA Monthly Roundup: January 2026

The Global Trade Alert team documented 571 trade and industrial policy developments during January 2026. Four trends emerge:

1. US tariff policy and bilateral agreements moved forward. The Trump Administration established a framework to impose additional tariffs on imports from countries supplying oil to Cuba. It imposed a 25% Section 232 duty on advanced computing chips and derivatives, excluding imports supporting many uses in US territory. Washington announced an Agreement on Trade and Investment with Chinese Taipei, capping reciprocal and Section 232 tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and timber at 15%.

2. Governments stepped up support for critical minerals supply chains. US lawmakers introduced the SECURE Minerals Act of 2026, proposing USD 2.5 billion for domestic mining, refining, and stockpiling capacity. Canada supported a lithium refining project. Argentina approved the "Carbonatos Profundos" gold and silver mining project under its Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), granting tariff exemptions and tax benefits.

3. Investment in AI and advanced technologies accelerated across multiple regions. China adopted AI+Manufacturing guidelines calling for increased state aid. The EU added EUR 1 billion to the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking for AI gigafactories and quantum technologies. South Korea's Export-Import Bank launched a KRW 22 trillion programme for the AI value chain, from semiconductors to AI factories. Japan approved JPY 387.3 billion for AI robots and physical AI foundation models. The UAE's Dubai announced AED 11 billion to expand the Silicon Oasis special economic zone for future technology sectors.

4. Trade defence activity intensified globally. The US launched antidumping and countervailing investigations on van-type trailers, fresh mushrooms, and chromium trioxide. It imposed definitive antidumping duties reaching up to 478% on Chinese thermoformed moulded fibre products. China initiated an anti-dumping investigation on dichlorosilane from Japan. Canada opened investigations into forged grinding media from China and imposed duties on steel strapping from China and Türkiye. Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and the UK each initiated new proceedings.

The GTA Monthly Roundup provides a rapid overview of changes in import barriers, export curbs, subsidies, and related industrial policy measures. It is organised by geography, beginning with the United States, China and the European Union. The final section briefly summarises developments in further regions covered by the GTA. Links to official sources are included in the references.

The United States continued its tariff policy and expanded sanctions targeting Iran. It also stepped up support for its domestic critical minerals and nuclear energy supply chains. The GTA team documented 79 new interventions during the last four weeks.

The Bureau of Industry and Security eased its license policy for exports of advanced computing commodities to end-users in China and Macau. The rule changes the licensing standard from a presumption of denial to a case-by-case review. This applies to specific semiconductors, including NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X-class products, provided they meet defined technical thresholds.

The Trump Administration issued an Executive Order establishing a framework to impose additional tariffs on imports from countries that supply oil to Cuba. The decision declared a national emergency with respect to Cuba. The Department of Commerce is authorised to identify foreign countries supplying oil to Cuba. The Department of State may then recommend the scope and level of additional tariffs.

In mid-January, the Administration imposed a 25% Section 232 duty on advanced computing chips and related derivative products. The regulation excludes imports supporting US data centres, research, startups, and consumer applications. It directs Commerce to negotiate security threats with foreign jurisdictions and report within 90 days. Broader tariffs depend on negotiation outcomes.

The White House also issued a proclamation concerning the Section 232 investigation on imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products (PCMDPs). The Commerce Department and USTR must negotiate with trading partners and report to the President within 180 days. Supplementary measures, including tariffs, may follow depending on negotiation outcomes.

Washington announced an Agreement on Trade and Investment with Chinese Taipei. Under the framework, the US committed to applying a reciprocal tariff rate of no more than 15% on goods from the territory. It also caps Section 232 tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, and timber at 15%.

Trade defence activity intensified with multiple new investigations and duties. The International Trade Administration initiated parallel antidumping and countervailing investigations on van-type trailers from Canada, China and Mexico. The investigations follow an application by the American Trailer Manufacturers Coalition. It also launched parallel antidumping and countervailing investigations on fresh mushrooms from Canada. Separately, the US started antidumping and countervailing investigations on chromium trioxide from India. The antidumping investigation also covers imports from Türkiye. In addition, Washington imposed definitive duties on several products, including countervailing duties of up to 139.6% on Indian imports of hexamethylenetetramine and parallel antidumping and countervailing duties on imports of thermoformed moulded fibre products from China (up to 478%) and Vietnam (up to 260.6%). 

The Department of War  issued the 2026 National Defense Strategy, identifying "supercharging the US defence industrial base" as a core priority. The strategy calls for expanded manufacturing capacity and re-shoring of strategic industries. Nevertheless, the document did not specify operational details as to funding and instrumentalisation. 

A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced the SECURE Minerals Act of 2026 to support domestic critical minerals supply chains. The bill proposes USD 2.5 billion for financing domestic mining and refining capacity. In addition, it would establish a Strategic Resilience Reserve as an independent government corporation to stockpile critical minerals.

The Department of Energy announced contracts to foster domestic uranium enrichment capacity. It awarded USD 900 million to General Matter and American Centrifuge Operating, each, to create high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) enrichment capacity. Likewise, the Department signed a USD 900 million contract with Orano Federal Services to expand low-enriched uranium (LEU) enrichment capacity. In this context, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated the administration is committed to restoring a secure domestic nuclear fuel supply chain.

The Department of State paused immigrant visa issuance for nationals of countries identified as high risk of public benefits usage. It entered into effect on 21 January 2026, but does not apply to non-immigrant visas.

With regard to sanctions, the Treasury Department imposed extensive restrictions on entities supporting Iran’s oil and banking. It designated multiple entities based in the UAE, India, Oman, Seychelles, Liberia and the Marshall Islands for facilitating Iranian oil and petroleum trade. The sanctions also prohibited eight vessels from port access and cargo handling services for transporting Iranian petroleum. Treasury further sanctioned UAE-based entities, a Singapore-based entity, a UK-based entity, and two Iran-based entities for connections to Iran's shadow banking networks.

The Department also imposed sanctions on three Iran-based entities for connections to high-technology systems for Iran's military. The entities allegedly procured chemicals for ballistic missiles. Besides, it sanctioned Venezuelan-based Empresa Aeronautica Nacional SA for involvement in acquiring Iranian-designed unmanned aerial vehicles.

In January 2026, China expanded its domestic economic support policies targeting strategic sectors. In addition, Beijing reportedly amended its chip import policy. The GTA team documented 86 new interventions.

China banned the export of dual-use goods for military purposes to Japan. According to China Daily, the measure is "in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's erroneous remarks hinting at the possibility of military intervention in the Taiwan Strait."

The Chinese government allegedly restricted Chinese tech companies from purchasing Nvidia's H200 chips. The new action expands the previous restrictions on certain AI chips from August and September 2025. Nonetheless, in late January, media outlets reported that the Chinese government had authorised the purchase of more than 400’000 Nvidia H200 chips by specific firms, namely ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent. The approval is subject to conditions being determined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce. 

It was also reported that Beijing banned cybersecurity software from over ten specific US and Israeli firms. Targeted firms include Palo Alto Networks Inc, Fortinet Inc, and Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. Chinese entities were required to replace these cybersecurity products with domestic technologies by the end of the first half of 2026.

In trade defence, Chinese authorities initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imports of dichlorosilane from Japan. The investigation follows the application lodged by Tangshan Sanfu Electronic Materials Co Ltd. A final determination is expected by 7 January 2027.

On 19 January 2026, the Ministry of Finance announced financial support measures targeting SMEs and strategic sectors. It established a CNY 500 billion special loan guarantee scheme operated by the National Financing Guarantee Fund to support investments made by SMEs. It launched a loan interest subsidy scheme for MSMEs in strategic industrial and strategic sectors, covering advanced manufacturing, producer services, agriculture, and emerging technology. Further, it expanded an interest payment subsidy scheme to include construction, municipal infrastructure, cold-chain logistics, recycling, electronic information, artificial intelligence, and elderly-care services. Equally, it expanded the loan interest subsidy scheme for service entities, adding digital, green, and retail sectors to the scheme. Funding is borne 90% by the central government and 10% by provincial governments. 

The People's Bank of China announced multiple increases in re-lending facilities. It increased the re-lending facility for technological innovation and equipment upgrades by CNY 400 billion, raising the total facility to CNY 1.2 trillion. The central bank also announced an additional CNY 500 billion for agricultural enterprises and SMEs, plus a new CNY 1 trillion scheme for private SMEs. The one-year interest rate for all re-lending was lowered from 1.5% to 1.25%.

Besides re-lending, the central bank announced up to CNY 800 billion per year in the expanded Carbon Emission Reduction Support Tool. The expansion shifts eligibility toward industry-wide decarbonisation projects. This includes industrial retrofits and low-carbon transitions in traditional sectors.

Earlier, the government adopted guidelines on implementing the 'AI+Manufacturing' action. The document calls for increased state aid for the AI and manufacturing sectors. By 2027, China aims to achieve a secure supply of key AI technologies and build a globally leading open-source ecosystem.

The China Development Bank disclosed CNY 1.8 billion in loans for Shanghai Automotive Industry Group's new energy vehicle development in 2025. The support aided the beneficiary in vehicle R&D and technological upgrades. The measure also supports the export of new energy vehicles under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Regarding export subsidies, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation cancelled value-added tax rebates for photovoltaic products, including lithium hexafluorophosphate and ceramic roofing tiles. This cancellation covers 249 HS codes and takes effect from 1 April 2026. The government also reduced value-added tax rebates for battery-related products from 9% to 6%. This includes lithium-ion batteries under 22 HS codes. The reduction remains in effect until 31 December 2026, after which the rebates will be cancelled entirely from 1 January 2027.

At the subnational level, Shanghai supported advanced manufacturing citywide and the healthcare sector in the Huangpu District. On the one hand, the city introduced an interest payment subsidy for technological upgrading of up to CNY 20 million per enterprise. On the other hand, Huangpu District introduced several measures for fostering industry-medicine integration, including aid for accelerating clinical trials and market approval for innovative drugs of up to CNY 50 million per enterprise. 

Huadu District in Guangzhou (Guangdong Province) also adopted measures supporting new energy and intelligent connected vehicles across research, production, and sales. The district will grant up to CNY 100 million for R&D platform construction and new vehicle model development, and up to CNY 60 million for production and investment in core NEV components. 

The EU continued to strengthen its industrial policy and tighten restrictions against Russia during January 2026. The European Commission also advanced proposals to enhance cybersecurity and secure ICT supply chains. The GTA team documented 72 new interventions by the EU and its member states.

In trade defence, the Commission imposed definitive antidumping duties on imports of barium carbonate from China and India, with rates ranging from 72.6% to 83.9% for Chinese imports and 4.6% for Indian imports. Separately, the Commission imposed definitive antidumping duties on Chinese imports of fused alumina, with rates ranging from 88.7% to 110.6% depending on the company. Both measures conclude investigations initiated in late 2024. 

The European Union added an additional 1 billion for the High Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (EuroHPC), supporting the establishment of AI gigafactories and reinforcing activities in AI and quantum technologies. The funding will cover capital expenditure contributions to AI gigafactories of up to 17% of computing infrastructure costs. AI gigafactories will be selected through a competitive process organised by the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking.

Brussels supported several new energy and storage projects. It signed a EUR 175 million green loan with Iberdrola for the construction of two wind farms in northern Portugal. The wind farms will be integrated into the existing Tâmega pumped storage hydropower complex. Later, it signed a EUR 200 million loan with N-ERGIE AG for electricity distribution infrastructure upgrades in Bavaria. The support will finance the renovation, reinforcement, and extension of the network up to 110 kV. Under the Connecting Europe Facility, the Commission granted EUR 180 million to Repsol Generación SAU for a 1’000 MW pumped-hydro energy storage facility in Cantabria, Spain. Similarly, the Commission granted EUR 120.1 million to RWE Gas Storage West GmbH for hydrogen storage expansion in Germany. 

The European international financial institutions signed several intermediary lending and investment agreements. The European Investment Fund (EIF) provided a EUR 111.6 million guarantee to BNL BNP Paribas, enabling lending to approximately 300 Italian SMEs and mid-caps. The EIB signed a EUR 100 million loan guarantee with Banca Sella SPA for Italian mid-cap companies and a EUR 100 million portfolio risk-sharing guarantee with UniCredit Banka Slovenija for Slovenian mid-caps. The latter allocates 30% to climate action and environmental sustainability projects.

Spain announced a EUR 3.1 billion scheme to support electricity production from high-efficiency combined heat and power (CHP) installations. Under the scheme, support is provided through two components: investment compensation awarded through competitive auctions and operational compensation calculated quarterly based on market variables. Eligible CHP installations must use natural gas, bioliquids, biogas, or solid biomass. Projects using natural gas must include equipment enabling at least 10% renewable hydrogen use. 

In Italy, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) and Intesa Sanpaolo signed a EUR 1 billion loan agreement to provide financing to SMEs and mid-caps. The support allows loans of up to EUR 25 million with terms of up to 18 years per project.

Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) and the EIF announced the EUR 1.6 billion EIF German Equity programme to support technology-driven startups. The programme targets artificial intelligence, fintech, digitalisation, and industrial innovation. It also covers energy, manufacturing, and life science technologies.

Poland’s Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK), supported by the EIF, launched the EUR 350 million Future Tech Poland fund of funds. The fund will back venture capital funds investing in Polish technology companies at various development stages, with full deployment expected by the end of 2027.

The Commission proposed a revised Cybersecurity Act to strengthen the ICT supply chain security. The proposal would prohibit suppliers from designated high-risk third countries from participating in public procurement procedures. The restrictions apply where contracts concern ICT components for assets identified at the EU level. High-risk suppliers would also be excluded from EU funding programmes and financial instruments. Affected suppliers retain procedural rights, including the possibility to request an exemption.

Concerning sanctions, Brussels lowered the price cap on Russian crude oil to USD 44.1 per barrel, down from USD 47.6 per barrel since September 2025. This marks the first application of the new automatic and dynamic mechanism for price cap adjustment. The measure entered into force on 1 February 2026. In parallel, the EU prohibited commercial and financing services to entities transporting Russian oil above the cap. Such transactions include brokering, financing, trading, and technical assistance services.

The GTA documented 334 new developments announced by jurisdictions outside the US, China, and the European Union in the last four weeks. Significant developments include:

Argentina introduced a 0% import duty rate for several types of paper used in the printing of books, newspapers, and other publications. The government also approved the "Carbonatos Profundos" gold and silver mining project as a beneficiary of the Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI in Spanish). As a result, the project will receive import tariff exemptions, internal tax exemptions, and tax benefits for five years. In terms of trade defence, the country initiated an antidumping investigation on Chinese imports of washing machines.

Australia's National Reconstruction Fund Corporation invested AUD 75 million in Gilmour Space Technologies to support the scaling of satellite and rocket manufacturing. The investment is subject to localisation provisions under the Australian Industry Participation policy.

Brazil's National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) signed a BRL 500 million loan with Toyota do Brasil for the acquisition of machinery and technological services for hybrid flex-fuel vehicles. BNDES also provided BRL 950 million in loans to Inpasa Agroindustrial SA to build a corn ethanol plant in Bahia and a BRL 1.98 billion loan to Bram Offshore Transportes Marítimos for the procurement of six hybrid vessels for offshore oil and gas production. Furthermore, Brasilia initiated an antidumping investigation on imports of phenolic resins from China.

Canada unveiled the CAD 244.2 million Defence Industry Assist initiative. It will provide funding and advisory services to Canadian small and medium-sized enterprises developing defence and dual-use technologies. Canada Growth Fund provided USD 65 million in structured financing to Mangrove Lithium for the commercialisation of an electrochemical lithium refining platform. Moreover, the government initiated parallel antidumping and countervailing investigations on imports of forged grinding media from China. The investigations follow the application lodged by Moly-Cop Canada on behalf of the Canadian industry. Ottawa also imposed definitive antidumping duties on imports of steel strapping from China and Türkiye, with rates ranging from 7% to 47.9%, as well as a definitive countervailing duty of 6.5% on Chinese imports of the same product.

Chinese Taipei reached an Agreement on Trade and Investment with the United States. Under it, the government committed to facilitating increased investment by US companies into Taiwan through a two-way investment mechanism in the "five trusted industries". These are semiconductors, artificial intelligence, defence technologies, security and surveillance, next-generation communications, and biotechnology. Likewise, it agreed to provide credit guarantees of up to USD 250 billion to facilitate additional investment by Taiwanese enterprises in the US semiconductor and ICT supply chain sectors.

The Eurasian Economic Union temporarily eliminated the import duty on ferroniobium until February 2028. The ferroalloy is used in the production of high-quality special-purpose steels. The Union also temporarily eliminated import duties on certain ground natural phosphates and phosphatic chalk to support mineral fertiliser producers. Additionally, the Union reinstated Namibia's status as a developing country benefiting from its Generalised System of Preferences. 

India approved incentives for nine companies under the Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme to manufacture printed circuit boards. The beneficiary firms are India Circuits Private Limited, Vital Electronics Private Limited, Signum Electronics Limited, Epitome Components Private Limited, BPL Limited, AT & S India Private Limited, Ascent-K Circuit Private Ltd, CIPSA TEC India Pvt Ltd and Shogini Technoarts Pvt Ltd. The Cabinet also allocated INR 5’000 crore for MSMEs via the Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI). In terms of trade defence, New Delhi initiated an antidumping investigation on imports of Nylon 6 chips and granules from China and Russia.

Japan approved its 2026 fiscal year budget, which includes several new financial support programmes. The new JPY 40 billion Decarbonisation Power Source Regional Contribution Investment Promotion Project provides subsidies of 20%–50% of eligible costs to companies investing in decarbonised power source locations. Moreover, the new JPY 387.3 billion Multi-modal Foundation Model Development Project with a Focus on AI Robots and Physical AI will channel support subsidies through NEDO for domestic AI foundation models for robotics and manufacturing purposes.

Malaysia introduced import licenses for certain chemical substances. These include 4-piperidone and 1-boc-4-piperidone, as well as BMK glycidic acid and its esters and ammonium nitrate and potassium nitrate.

Mexico increased import tariffs on 33 food products by removing them from the "basic basket" products list first established in May 2022. To partially offset this, the government established temporary import tariff-rate quotas for beef, pork, and paddy rice until December 2026. In terms of agricultural support, the government increased the annual budgets of the National Fertilisers Programme to MXN 29.6 billion and of the Production for Welfare Programme to MXN 32.1 billion. Additional support programmes include the Sustainable Forest Development for Wellbeing Programme with a 2026 budget of MXN 2 billion and the Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Programme with MXN 2.3 billion. Furthermore, Mexico City initiated an antidumping investigation on imports of apples from the United States.

Nigeria's Levene Energy Development Limited received USD 64 million from Afreximbank for acquiring a 30% stake in Axxela Limited. The acquired company is a provider of gas and power infrastructure in West Africa.

Pakistan prohibited the importation of chloroform, limiting imports exclusively to the pharmaceutical sector. Authorised pharmaceutical companies must now obtain a No Objection Certificate from the Drug Regulatory Authority.

Qatar's Investment Authority announced a USD 25 billion commitment to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. These resources will support the company’s investment opportunities in critical sectors, including AI, fintech, and digital infrastructure.

Russia’s Industry Development Fund disclosed RUB 8.2 billion in loans to Avtotor, a Russian group of companies involved in the automotive industry. Moscow also reintroduced an export license on unwrought lead, lead waste and scrap until July 2026. The measure will not apply to exports to other Eurasian Economic Union countries.

Saudi Arabia initiated an antidumping investigation on imports of epoxy resins from China, South Korea, India, and Chinese Taipei. The investigation follows the application lodged by Al Jubail Petrochemical Company (JANA).

South Korea’s Export-Import Bank announced a KRW 22 trillion AX Program for the AI industry. It comprises of KRW 20 trillion in loans and loan guarantees plus KRW 2 trillion in startup investments. It targets entities across the full AI value chain, including semiconductors, data centres, LLM development, AI solutions, robots, and AI factories. 

Switzerland expanded its sanctions against Russia and its allies in response to its invasion of Ukraine. It placed three entities based in the UAE and Russia on the frozen funds list for their alleged involvement in transporting Russian crude oil. Bern also sanctioned one Vietnamese shipping company for its involvement in Russia's shadow fleet and added 41 vessels to the list for which port access and services are prohibited.

Thailand's Board of Investment approved a THB 65 billion foreign investment by Zhen Ding Technology to expand production of advanced printed circuit boards in Prachin Buri province. The company aims to make Thailand a production base for highly complex PCBs for use in smartphones, AI servers, and advanced electronic equipment.

Türkiye abolished simplified customs declarations for low-value imports. All shipments will now be required to comply with standard customs declaration procedures. Previously, non-commercial imports valued at EUR 30 or less were eligible for simplified customs declarations and subject to flat-rate customs duties of 30% (for shipments from European countries) or 60% (for shipments from non-European countries).

The United Arab Emirates' Dubai will invest AED 11 billion to expand the Dubai Silicon Oasis special economic zone by establishing District IO. The district aims to host companies operating in future technology sectors, including smart mobility, 3D printing, robotics, X-Tech, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. The Abu Dhabi Fund for Development announced the launch of the Abu Dhabi Global Water Platform, committing USD 1 billion to finance water management initiatives globally. The platform will support national exports and provide guarantees as well as finance national private sector investments in water-related projects. 

The United Kingdom raised the budget for fixed-bottom offshore wind under the 7th Contracts for Difference scheme from GBP 900 million to GBP 1.79 billion. The scheme supports renewable energy companies in sectors including offshore wind, solar, and tidal power. The National Wealth Fund announced plans to deploy GBP 19.4 billion in capital by 2030/31 across 25 target sectors spanning clean energy, infrastructure, and advanced industries. London also joined the EU in reducing the crude oil price cap on Russian crude oil from USD 47.6 to USD 44.1 per barrel. British operators are prohibited from providing maritime transport services, insurance and brokerage services for Russian oil traded above the cap. Moreover, the country initiated a countervailing investigation on imports of creamy/white limestone from Portugal.

Vietnam set the 2026 import tariff-rate quota volume for raw tobacco at 79’199 tonnes, a decrease compared to the previous year's monthly volume. In-quota imports are subject to preferential tariff rates of 15% to 30%, compared to out-of-quota rates of 80% to 90%. The quota is assigned to operators using raw tobacco as material for cigarette production.

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