Which Headline Grabbing Import Changes Matter and Why? Evidence from the Eurozone, Japan, and the USA since 2000

Fears of an incipient Chinese export surge are leading some to place too much stock on monthly trade data releases. However, it is important to note that such data is volatile and can be misleading. Using monthly import values and volume data since 2000, I show that double-digit changes in import volumes or import prices happen often in Eurozone, Japanese, and American data. But rarely do import volumes and prices move at the same time in ways consistent with pervasive foreign dumping or subsidisation. In nearly a quarter of century, there is at most one sustained spell consistent with the latter practices (during 2015).