What the SCOTUS ruling on IEEPA means for US tariffs
The Supreme Court ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump strikes down IEEPA tariffs, reducing the trade-weighted average US tariff from 15.4% to 8.3%
On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. This analysis quantifies the impact: the trade-weighted average US tariff falls from 15.4% to 8.3%, a reduction of 7.1 percentage points. The ruling strikes down the IEEPA baseline tariff, all country-specific top-ups, and emergency executive orders. Section 232, Section 301, and MFN rates remain unchanged.
Authors
Johannes Fritz
Date Published
20 Feb 2026
The trade-weighted average US tariff drops from 15.3% to 8.3%
On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. This ruling strikes down the single largest source of tariff increases imposed since January 2025.
The trade-weighted average tariff on all US imports falls by 7.1 percentage points, from 15.4% to 8.3%.
What was struck down
The ruling invalidates all tariffs imposed under IEEPA authority:
- IEEPA baseline tariff (10%) applied to imports from all countries except Canada, Mexico, and USMCA-compliant goods
- IEEPA country-specific top-ups including the additional tariffs on China (currently at 10%), the EU (20%), and other trading partners
- Emergency executive orders including the China fentanyl emergency surcharge and the Canada/Mexico border emergency tariffs
- IEEPA tariff floors that prevented other tariff instruments from reducing the effective rate below the IEEPA level
What remains in force
The following tariff instruments were imposed under separate legal authorities and are unaffected by the ruling:
- Section 232 tariffs on steel (25%), aluminium (25%), copper (25%), lumber (25%), and automobiles/parts (25%)
- Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods (various rates, originally imposed 2018-2019)
- HTS/MFN baseline rates including USMCA and KORUS preferential rates
Before vs after: by country
The tariff reduction is visible across all trading partners. The following chart compares before and after rates for the top 20 US import sources.
China remains the most heavily tariffed origin due to the remaining Section 301 duties. The chart below shows the post-SCOTUS tariff composition, where Section 232 (orange) has become the dominant instrument for most trading partners.
Biggest tariff cuts: by country
Among the largest US import sources, the tariff cuts range widely. The following chart shows the reduction for the top 20 import origins.
Looking across all trading partners, the largest tariff reductions occur for countries that faced the highest IEEPA top-ups.
Before vs after: by sector
The tariff reduction varies considerably across sectors. Industries dominated by Section 232 products (steel, aluminium, motor vehicles) see smaller reductions, while sectors where IEEPA was the primary tariff instrument see the largest drops.
Downloads
The following datasets are available for download:
- Country-level comparison: Before and after tariff rates for all US import sources, including EU aggregate and HS-2 sector breakdown
- Flow-level public dataset: Complete tariff rates at the exporter x HS 8-digit product level for both scenarios (274,000+ flows)
Methodology
Tariff rates are computed at the HS 8-digit product level for each exporting country and aggregated using 2024 US import values as weights. The analysis covers all US merchandise imports.
The IEEPA full strike-down scenario sets all IEEPA-authorised tariff rates (baseline, top-ups, and floors) and emergency executive order rates to zero, while preserving all other tariff instruments at their current levels.
For the full methodology, see the US Tariff Barrier Estimates documentation.